GA Signals

GA Signals is useful in situations where you are not
sure which system to use to generate a signal, but
have an idea that several systems and measurements,
when combined, could create a good entry. That
is, by combining 3 Systems and 3 Indicators (for
example), some combination thereof would generate a
signal - you just don't know what that combination
is.
GA Signals iterates on the problem space using a
Genetic Algorithm process, until it has converged on
numerous "rules" which are then added to a Knowledge
Base, such as "Long Signal when MAC-M fires a signal
and Volatility is between 2.5 and 3.5 and Close is
more than 5% above the 21 period Moving Average."
Test case #1:
Futures Knowledge Base on Currencies
We generated a Knowledge
Base on by using continuous contracts on currencies
going back 30 years (that is, our Back Test for
training was set to use all 30 years of data).
We reserved a one-year Forward Test at the end of
training as an "out of sample" test period:
Currencies Used:
EuroDollar
British Pound
Australian Dollar
Canadian Dollar
American Dollar
Japanese Yen
Swiss Franc
After training, we changed the Back Test to one year
so we could compare similar time frames (one year
Back Test and one year Forward Test). The
resulting performance report is shown here:

Here is a chart for the
Swiss Franc:

Test
Case #2: Knowledge Base for Grains

Here is a chart for
Wheat:
|