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CPS
Last Activity 5/30/2020 8:23 PM
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LSJ

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Subject : CPS
Posted : 5/6/2020 9:42 AM
Post #31115

In the FWIW dept. here are some stats to go with CPS7. This is from the Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts by Thomas Bulkowski:



(I've also read elsewhere that these stats are a bunch of malarkey.)

[Edited by LSJ on 5/6/2020 9:45 AM]

Attached file : Bulkowski Rank.jpg (203KB - 318 downloads)

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Frank Birch

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Subject : RE: CPS
Posted : 5/6/2020 1:48 PM
Post #31116 - In reply to #31115

Hi LSJ & all,

Just out of curiosity does he show the exit mythology for said candlesticks for the statistics??

Regards

Frank Birch
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LSJ

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Subject : RE: CPS
Posted : 5/6/2020 2:09 PM
Post #31117 - In reply to #31115

Typically the pattern is accompanied with an explanation:



He also puts a lot of the information on his site: thepatternsite.com but he gives more of it in his book.

[Edited by LSJ on 5/6/2020 2:11 PM]

Attached file : Bulkowski Rank_002.jpg (122KB - 271 downloads)

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THOMAS HELGET

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Subject : RE: CPS
Posted : 5/7/2020 9:50 AM
Post #31119 - In reply to #31117

Frank and Larry:

I love it - the "mythology" of the candlestick patterns!

Indeed there is a lot of that going on there.

I know that when Tom Bulkowski was preparing his manuscript for "Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts" his publisher asked him to write up some of the candlestick patterns as they might appear in the book which they (I think Wiley & Sons) really didn't want to publish because all of Tom's research was initially very disappointing. Additionally another one of their major authors was Steve Nison who was extolling the value of candlestick patterns at the time.

But Tom persevered and finally got the book published with analysis on over 100 candlestick patterns - again none of which one could really get excited about.

The reason I know all this is that while Tom was preparing his original 50 chapters for Wiley to review he asked me for input as to what a trader might be interested in and kindly allowed me to review and critique several of the original chapters. He also leaned on his brother for support - check out the Acknowledgments page.

To this day I really have no faith in candlesticks predictivity - and, yes, I am now ducking under my desk awaiting the fallout from that statement.

But I admire Tom for persisting - in medicine the current trend is toward Evidence Based Medicine. If it doesn't really have any efficacy a drug should cease being used in favor of one that does. While the candlesticks patterns have been thought to be predictive for years Tom Bulkowski brought that into question and allowed traders to see that under the cruel light of analysis their predictive ability was questionable at best.

Tom Helget


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Frank Birch

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Subject : RE: CPS
Posted : 5/7/2020 2:39 PM
Post #31120 - In reply to #31119

Hi Tom & all,

You have opened a can of worms here !!!
you have to ask yourself it may of worked back in time because it was new and an edge to trade then everyone jumped on board then that edge has now gone.
Same with George lane and the CCI worked perfectly to start then failed as a one entry option because of the masses??
food for thought.
Mind you nice accolade to have had the chance to admire the work before the release.

Regards

Frank Birch
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Frank Birch

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Subject : RE: CPS
Posted : 5/7/2020 2:55 PM
Post #31121 - In reply to #31120

Hi Tom & all,

Trust me I've had the same problem in faith of an idea!!
Elliot Wave is subjective at best of times and never been mechanical proven!!
A chart says a thousand words.
Look at the chart below.
So like candlesticks its how you use them to your advantage is key!!

Regards

Frank Birch



[Edited by Frank Birch on 5/7/2020 2:59 PM]

Attached file : 2020-05-07_19-01-10.png 2 & 4 wave counts.png (37KB - 46 downloads)

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LSJ

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Subject : RE: CPS
Posted : 5/13/2020 10:38 AM
Post #31133 - In reply to #31120

I would think the same reasoning would apply to any analytical method - we keep using support/resistance, trend, head and shoulders, etc.

If these methods truly are readable in terms of supply and demand their use is further re-enforcement of what they reveal IMHO!


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