kmcintyre Elite    Posts: 890 Joined: 10/11/2012 Location: Portland, OR  User Profile | Steve, I will collect the gain/loss stats for the SPY over 28 2 year periods, with starting dates 10/1/2012 - 10/28/2012. I will graph the results in the same way I did the ending equity for PW. (I will probably need to normalize the SPY to 100,000 so the graphs are apples to apples.) My guess is that I will not see wild variations in returns from day to day. My point is that the day-to-day performance I'm seeing when using PW and the available EFs is very inconsistent. I can't explain why 2 year returns are so wildly different based on a few days difference in start date. I also can't explain why EFs work well sometimes and not so well other times. Especially when the "times" are within days of each other. So my hypothesis is that PW results are based more on luck than reliable prediction. Is PW better that buy-and-hold of the SPY? I believe you when you say it is. But that's not what I've been focused on. I want consistent, reliable, and understandable results. All the data I've collected over months of testing display the same inability of PW to find the winning strategies on it's own AND produce consistent results, regardless of minor variations in account settings, including simulation date ranges. The variations defy logic IMO. My goal is not to tear down PW, but rather to point to areas where it needs improvement. That's what engineers do. I'll post my SPY comparison within a day or two. Keith | |
