Mark Holstius Elite    Posts: 744 Joined: 10/11/2012 Location: Sleepy Hollow, IL  User Profile | Actually, that was good since it gave me some time to reflect on using all these great new tools Nirvana’s given us since the Bash with the specific goal of reducing risk. To do that, I approached things from the most basic level again – developing a new way to build simple, non-dynamic Portfolios. I shared with Steve, Ed, LD, and Larry over the holidays that I had some completely new ideas, and today was my first opportunity to try them in OV. I’ve said numerous times that I had a goal of 30% CAR with 5% MDD – but I’ve never been able to accomplish that, until now. I’m focusing on a new filter / statistical ranking I’ll call “Efficient Strategies”, and it looks like it has the potential to open up many new possibilities. The following snags are from a Portfolio I built today using just RTM strategies and the Dynamic ELS list over the past 2 years. I haven’t utilized any of the capabilities of Conditional Entries, Portfolio Wizard, Portfolio Balancer, or changing Allocations… yet. This is just the first step in developing a new method & set of rules, and there’ll be much more statistical testing and verification before using it (thanks for your new Statistical Analysis tools, Steve), but I’m excited that the theory may work and wanted to share 2 Equity Graphs with stats that I’ve never been able to achieve before; In the first, the Equity Ceiling (margin at 195%) is never reached – so every trade generated by the Strategies is taken; In the second, I allow the Portfolio to tag the Equity Ceiling (margin at 195%) a few times, but not to a great extent; Admittedly, the past 2 years have been a bull market and this is “looking back”, but using this new method results in a Portfolio that rarely hits the 2X margin limit – so I’m not left wondering if I just “fit the curve”, filling the Portfolio with Strategies that just happened to have profitable trades that meshed well at the equity ceiling (ISS). I’ll be working on building different portfolios for various market conditions and then using additional OV tools (PW, PB, Conditional Entries and Exits, Adjusted Allocations, etc - thanks, Ed) to hopefully find a robust, dynamic combination that will automatically adjust as the market changes. Sorry, but I don’t want to go into more detail yet (Elite Trader…???), but I wanted to share the possibility that we haven’t yet touched on all the capabilities these outstanding new tools give us. Thanks, Ed & everyone working so hard at Nirvana to make this happen... Happy New Year! Mark [Edited by Mark Holstius on 1/1/2015 5:42 PM]  Attached file : Low Risk 1s.jpg (229KB - 758 downloads) Attached file : Low Risk 2s.jpg (217KB - 744 downloads) |
