Mark Holstius Elite    Posts: 744 Joined: 10/11/2012 Location: Sleepy Hollow, IL  User Profile | Statistically, Reversion To Mean (or Regression To Mean in many textbooks) has a number of supporters. The stats, coupled with large numbers of trades in different groups, is what keeps me going for the long haul & not worrying at this point. Drawdowns are part of the territory, sometimes due to overinvestment in a group, sometimes just the market. This time, the group representation seems pretty good… and putting the symbols into ETFScreen’s table, even fairly uncorrelated; But, we’re still sitting on a MTM loss. Randomness will do that. The UCO trade this past week is an example of how things can change: from -3.28% on Friday the day after the trade to closing for a 5.74% profit yesterday, Tuesday; I’m not saying that will happen this time & everything will be profitable - just pointing out that I’ll stick with the statistics supporting RTMs for the time being. With that in mind, I’m also trying to find a better “edge” by using the trade data people are sharing and some ideas I’m testing on setting profit targets. Just wanted to share some reflections… Hope everyone has a good day – and that things turn a bit more positive. ;-) Mark [Edited by Mark Holstius on 8/25/2016 6:21 AM]  Attached file : 02 Correlation of groups.png (197KB - 437 downloads) Attached file : 03 UCO Example.png (219KB - 450 downloads) |
