Mark Holstius![]() Elite ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Posts: 744 Joined: 10/11/2012 Location: Sleepy Hollow, IL ![]() | Thanks for your post, Steve… Your observation about the ARNC trades was spot on. I appreciate you putting it up here while I’ve been enjoying one of the primary benefits of using OV: visiting our grandchildren for a while and not worrying about things while I’m gone. Interestingly enough, that trade seems to be a good example of what I spoke about at the Bash: building a portfolio that responds well after a Black Swan event rather than one that avoids them. It certainly appears that the fire in London and its effect on ARNC fits the bill. It might be possible to avoid trading in a symbol if there’s negative news, but that would require more effort than I want to invest on a daily basis. While we obviously would’ve been better off not having the DD in ARNC, I’m happy with the results so far in both my margin and IRA accounts - an 84% HR on 39 closed trades since posting it on Elite 6/16/17; That said, I have a few ideas I’ll be investigating over the weekend; 1) I didn’t have much time before the Bash to review & refine my list containing ~4,300 Optionable stocks. It might be good to go through them and remove the non-US stocks - especially those in markets that trade quite a bit outside of the normal US times and days. (Asian & European markets come to mind) 2) I’ve tried hard to avoid curve fitting. While my statistics showed an improvement allowing multiple positions in a symbol, that could be some sneaking in - so I’ll do more testing there. 3) Using an average $50M Money Flow over 10 days in the Dynamic Lists could be biased by a large spike in volume in the last day or 2 due to negative news (ARNC?). I’ll look at requiring something more stringent than an average. I also plan on posting more information about what’s been “normal” for the portfolio over the past 15 years in terms of DD sizes and lengths. We have to expect them, especially with the possibility of a market correction at some point, but I still feel the dynamic responses of the portfolio should help it perform well going forward. Mark [Edited by Mark Holstius on 6/29/2017 4:28 PM] ![]() |