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Mark Holstius

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Posts: 744

Joined: 10/11/2012
Location: Sleepy Hollow, IL

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Subject : Follow The Money Update
Posted : 8/3/2017 7:54 PM
Post #36844 - In reply to #36843

Good evening Buffalo,

Actually, it may work in your favor to been on the sidelines lately. After a string of 62 winning trades in a row, we’ve had 12 losing trades close out recently. That’s still an 84% HR since 6/15, but nothing to brag about recently. Sigh.

It’s all part of the game, and nothing to be particularly excited about historically.

In answer to your question about multiple trades: Yes, the portfolio is designed to take advantage of multiple entries in a symbol. I’ve found a definite positive correlation over time between multiple signals firing in a symbol and an improvement in the resultant PPT. Please see my first post in the following link to a thread for more information & data - in particular the blue table near the end of the first post in that thread;

https://www.omnitrader.com/currentclients/omnivestforum/thread-view.asp?threadid=7839&posts=2

There are 2 FTM Recent losses that stand out - both of which were affected by earnings reports.

COHR




The FTM portfolio entered a trade in COHR on 8/1 that was perfectly reasonable - until they posted earnings that evening that didn’t meet their Consensus forecast. At least it was a single small 2% position and didn’t do a lot of damage. That’s one of the benefits of taking numerous small trades - diversification.

-12.49% x 2% allocation = ~ -.25% equity loss. That would’ve hurt a lot more with a 20% allocation.

There were 2 trades in COHR on 6/16 that closed +7.35%, but this losing one just has to be chalked up as a “black swan”. It’s interesting that the RTM had already signaled an exit for the following morning, so we only got hit with a -12.49% loss. COHR gapped down on 8/2 and had a much larger loss that day overall (~ -20%).

DAL




DAL was an entry on 3 signals 8 days after a lower than expected earnings report and wasn’t helped with a sideways market (SPY). Looks like it may come up some more, but we’re out of it now.

Maybe avoiding trades before and after earnings could be a good idea, but it would take more testing. There are surprises to the up side that help too…

It’s all part of automatic, unattended, ”non-discretionary” trading. The rules don’t always work - we just want them to work enough to make us money over time…

Nice to have you on board,

Mark


[Edited by Mark Holstius on 8/3/2017 7:57 PM]

Attached file : 01 COHR.png (296KB - 1233 downloads)
Attached file : 02 DAL.png (315KB - 1203 downloads)

Deleting message 36844 : Follow The Money Update


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