OmniVest User Forums
OmniVest Success
December Success
20 replies, 1534 viewings
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OmniVest User Forums
OmniVest Success
December Success
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Last Activity 7/22/2015 1:06 PM 20 replies, 1534 viewings |
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Ed Downs Elite    Posts: 645 Joined: 2/7/2007 Location: Austin, Texas  User Profile |
Ed; Just wanted to let you know my 1st month's results of OMNIVEST trading.I started trading 4 DEC 2012 with aproximately a $100,000 LIVE trading account. I made my last BUY on 26 DEC 2012 as I was concerned about the FISCAL CLIFF ,and your REVERSION TO MEAN strategy lets me put my own input into your strategy selections. My total profit was $3209.98. I have done no trading the last 2 sessions as none were available for my LONG only strategy. This is a QUALIFIED ACCOUNT. Of my 46 trades, 41 were profitable and 5 were losses. My largest profit was $573.77--- my largest loss was $237.77. I presently trade through Scottrade @ $7.00/trade. My background is that of a retired CDR-Naval Aviator with 17 years of active and reserve duty, and as a retired 1st VP of a major stock market WIRE HOUSE for 34 years licensed in STOCK,COMMODITIES, and INSURANCE. The majority of my business was in equities. Thanks to you, I now look forward every evening to my stock buys and sells for the next day's trading. Having a stock trading mentality, I never buy less than 100 shares of any stock and at times will add to positions as long as the stock is still active. I started trading with a BRONZE subscription,but realized very quickly the benefits of the GOLD subscription. Thank you for developing this strategy as it allows me to be involved but to which ever level of involvement I choose. Personally,I execute my buys and sells in the morning and go about my other activities during the day. I am looking forward with great anticipation to the new strategies you are continuing to develop. Thanks again........ Ed F., OmniVest Subscriber | ||
| Steve Mayo Legend Posts: 414 Joined: 10/11/2012 Location: Austin, TX User Profile |
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| Ed Downs Elite Posts: 645 Joined: 2/7/2007 Location: Austin, Texas User Profile |
Thanks for this post. I hear you! I am just like all our customers in this regard - I'm trading a live account but with low allocations while we are testing. I am chomping at the bit to crank 'er up to full margin. I honestly think we are only a week or so away. I'm sure our forum participants will let me know if I am right! Anyway, OmniVest is a HUGE focus for us in January. We will get there. | ||
| berklee Member Posts: 28 Joined: 9/16/2013 Location: Greenville, SC User Profile |
Realized $2100 loss today with $1900 unrealized loss currently. The biggest problem were two specific positions, one which is still on. R12-L-ELS went long PBR on 11/29/2013 with 1124.28 loss currently, unrealized. R12-L-ELS went long WLT on 11/21/2013 at 15.87 and sold on open this AM at 1108.42 loss. Another closed trade from R12-L-ELS contributed additional 530.42 loss at open today. Don't mean to analyze this to death - that is why I prefer technical system, but I find it curious that a single strategy is responsible for $2700 combined unrealized and realized losses over the same period. Lee | ||
| kmcintyre Elite Posts: 890 Joined: 10/11/2012 Location: Portland, OR User Profile |
I've given back a lot of gains too. It's part of trading. Perhaps the market direction is changing. It takes a while for software to figure that out and stop going long as the market turns the other way. In terms of percentage, I see nothing unusual. I've given back 8 or 9%. Looking at historical simulated performance, an MDD of 18.5% is to be expected. (YMMV) So while it hasn't been pleasant, it hasn't been unexpected. I'm hoping for more volatility so that my RTM strategies stop treading water and start raking in profits. But with volatility comes, well, volatility! If the market is turning and volatility picks up OV should figure it out and start really doing well. If we keep doing this sideways to slightly up, low volatility dance, OV probably won't beat the SPY. Keep the faith! Cheers Keith | ||
| Diamondjag Veteran Posts: 123 Joined: 10/11/2012 Location: Brighton, Co. User Profile |
I started with a $50,000 account in very late June. The account dropped $2,000 by early Sept. I then switched strategies. The account then peaked on Nov. 27 with a little over a $5,000 gain. That means it was up $7,000 ($5,000 gain plus it make up the $2,000 loss) from Sept. 4 to Nov. 27th. That $5,000 gain is now down to $3,000 while still staring at the PRB potential loss of over $1,000. We'll see how that comes out. If you're playing with reversion to the mean strategies you are continually catching falling knives...and when catching falling knives, you're occassionally going to get cut. That's the problem with reversion to the mean strategies. Some positions don't revert. The question is, is the strategy performing within it's historical parameters. [Edited by Diamondjag on 12/4/2013 12:05 AM] | ||
| berklee Member Posts: 28 Joined: 9/16/2013 Location: Greenville, SC User Profile |
I don't so much fault any strategy looking at PBR chart (not pretty). I certainly have had other positions which OV has taken which have gapped up - so probabilistically, I expect the same in the other direction based on external forces that cannot be predicted (news, etc). I am pleased (but spoiled) that things ran so well in the first 2 month. So for now, I will hang on and wait for things to turn around... or the system to adjust. Lee | ||
| George Member Posts: 24 Joined: 9/29/2013 Location: Independence, Minnesota User Profile |
I have built a few trade accounts with 21 different strategies running on both a 5k and 30k account. I have only paper traded about 45 days, but it has done well with a very small draw down over the past 2 weeks. | ||
| Diamondjag Veteran Posts: 123 Joined: 10/11/2012 Location: Brighton, Co. User Profile |
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| Juan Regular Posts: 74 Joined: 10/11/2012 Location: Round Rock, Tx User Profile |
My regular account with 17 long/short strategies has not done as well and since 5/1/2013 has only increased 5% but went as high as 10% and then has had some recent big draw downs like PBR and WLT. Also, I have strategies that go short and the majority of the shorts have been losers due to very strong market we're in right now. I think it will take long time to truly measure the success of OV but so far I'm fine with the results especially for the retirement account. It's not double or triple the return of the major indexes as I was hoping. But I'm not losing money either. My goal is for OV to exceed the returns of the major indexes as much as possible. So far it has not done that, but then it's too soon to pass judgement. | ||
| George Member Posts: 24 Joined: 9/29/2013 Location: Independence, Minnesota User Profile |
The stats show a 31.9 on the 30k account and 33% on on the 5k account but when I look at the charts it appears very reasonable. I have included a chart of trades made since joining this project. The CAR on this period is 66.79 Start Date: 1/1/2008 End Date: 12/5/2013 Starting Equity: $5,000 Ending Equity: $210,921 Net Change: $205,921 Total Trades: 6312 Avg Monthly Trades: 88.7 Avg Daily Trades: 4.1 Annualized Return: 88.0 % Start Date: 1/1/2008 End Date: 12/5/2013 Starting Equity: $30,000 Ending Equity: $1,220,166 Net Change: $1,190,166 Total Trades: 6325 Avg Monthly Trades: 88.9 Avg Daily Trades: 4.1 Annualized Return: 86.8 %  Attached file : 30k paper trading chart.xlsx (42KB - 264 downloads) | ||
| Ed Downs Elite Posts: 645 Joined: 2/7/2007 Location: Austin, Texas User Profile |
We are adding Market Filters right now that will enable people to set Strategies to be active in certain market conditions (like Market above its 55p Moving Average or using any other indicator). This should improve performance across the board. Look at the new Bear Market Portfolios. That is where OmniVest can really help. When will we be in a Bear Market? I think we are overdue - probably will end as profit taking ensues and QE is relaxed. But the whole idea of OmniVest is you don't have to guess if your Strategies have good odds of holding up in Bull Markets but doing really well in Bear Markets. | ||
| Jim Dean Elite  Posts: 1059 Joined: 10/11/2012 Location: L'ville, GA User Profile |
When you say "any other indicator" does that include indicators written in OmniLanguage &/or the SDK? [Edited by Jim Dean on 12/24/2013 12:03 PM] | ||
| George Member Posts: 24 Joined: 9/29/2013 Location: Independence, Minnesota User Profile |
As I look at the various Portfolios stored in Omnivest, I am questioning why I would want to risk attempting to "determine the market direction" and use the Bear/Bull/Trend Market Filters in your post of a few weeks ago? Looking at the results of the Arm4 Margin Portfolio, your performance is much higher than any of the filters. I am confused why we would want to use this when we can just as easily add a greater percentage to our existing short/long strategies? It seems risky to attempt to change the rules from something that has been backtested in nearly all market conditions based on a current time "perceived" market direction. | ||
| Diamondjag Veteran Posts: 123 Joined: 10/11/2012 Location: Brighton, Co. User Profile |
We never did get time, dollar, or percentage stops in OV, did we? I'm concerned big time about a market drop with my current strategy although this strategy had a 66.8% win rate and a 149% CAR during the heart of the bear market Oct. 10, 2007 to March 9, 2009. Seems like I should stick with it, doesn't it? Thanks Ed for the Bear Market Portfolios and am looking forward to the market filters. I will be reworking my OV strategy prior to the end of the year. | ||
| Jim Dean Elite Posts: 1059 Joined: 10/11/2012 Location: L'ville, GA User Profile |
Nirvana's near term plans include adding more trending strategies to the mix. They can be very profitable, and unlike RTM strat's they don't tend to "churn" the account quite as much. For some traders they are highly preferable. But the Achilles heel of trending strats is that they perform poorly in inappropriate market conditions - just as RTM strat's don't do well in trending markets. By utilizing a market-mode identification filter, the different types of strategies can be utilized most effectively and intelligently. I'm sure that if you don't want to use the filter feature you won't have to - but some folks believe it is a welcome and essential tool. [Edited by Jim Dean on 12/24/2013 1:09 PM] | ||
| Steve2 Elite Posts: 750 Joined: 10/11/2012 Location: Annapolis, MD User Profile |
Steve | ||
| Jim Dean Elite Posts: 1059 Joined: 10/11/2012 Location: L'ville, GA User Profile |
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| George Member Posts: 24 Joined: 9/29/2013 Location: Independence, Minnesota User Profile |
I think it is very difficult to determine a trend direction over any reasonable time. Trying to trade in those markets against an individual stock is even harder.. Again, I look at the Arm4 results at over $800k on a 30k account since 1/1/2008, and a corresponding $300-400k on any of the bull market portfolios, I have to question the wisdom in changing a system that has performed so well over a long period of time, regardless of the drawdowns. Another question I would ask is why the existing strategies would not already have the same filter/trend defining logic within them? Why do we require another filter, that is based on our more imperfect and basis human judgement, rather than not contain that proven and backtested logic within the existing strategies. Just comments/questions based on my limited view of the application.. [Edited by George on 12/25/2013 5:50 AM] | ||
| Ed Downs Elite Posts: 645 Joined: 2/7/2007 Location: Austin, Texas User Profile |
YES, MARKET FILTERS WILL BE SUPPORTED IN THE SIMULATION. Any filter you apply to a Strategy will be used in the entire back test. This is in the new release. Video pending... | ||
| Jim Dean Elite Posts: 1059 Joined: 10/11/2012 Location: L'ville, GA User Profile |
I can't wait to see what filters you are offering. [Edited by Jim Dean on 2/14/2014 2:35 PM] |
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