OmniVest User Forums
General Discussion Topics
Follow The Money Modifications
29 replies, 4624 viewings
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OmniVest User Forums
General Discussion Topics
Follow The Money Modifications
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Last Activity 4/15/2019 7:43 PM 29 replies, 4624 viewings |
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berklee Member  Posts: 28 Joined: 9/16/2013 Location: Greenville, SC  User Profile |
... and monitoring the trades... I am beginning to become more concerned that RTM approach (rather than trend following) will attempt to catch falling knives if there is a market correction. Just interested in others thoughts. Lee | ||
| Jim Dean Elite  Posts: 1059 Joined: 10/11/2012 Location: L'ville, GA User Profile |
[Edited by Jim Dean on 10/2/2017 4:50 AM] | ||
| BrianD Legend  Posts: 302 Joined: 2/23/2013 Location: Grand Rapids, MI User Profile |
Really hard to believe this recent market. But if the market is having less trading volumes and there is a movement to Index ETF investing and it becomes the new norm, maybe Portfolio Balancing of Trending and RTM strategy mixtures will be the direction to follow? Though that somehow leaves me feeling like 'catching the knives'. I never gravitated toward Trending strategies vs. RTM too much, but Trending appear to have done really well lately. BTW: All of my RTMs trading Accounts are positioned well within their "last high $$" to 'Avg Annual Drawdown' $$ value, which I watch like a hawk, so they are doing what I should expect from Simulation testing. Just have to be watchful... [Edited by BrianD on 10/2/2017 6:18 PM] | ||
| Buffalo Bill Member Posts: 28 Joined: 1/2/2015 Location: Stafford, VA User Profile |
Originally written by 8350 on 9/10/2017 2:03 PM Jim, I checked on that and as far as I can tell the majority are ATR for the fixed stops. Parameters of the ATR seem to vary which suggests they might not be 'arbitrary' Some RTM strategies do not reveal the stops used. These seem to be the ARM strategies. James/anyone - how do you "see" the details of any strat like the tradeplan? I poked all around OV but can't figure out how to do that? Do you need to be an elite trader? Something I have wanted to do but frustrated by my inability | ||
| Mark Holstius Elite  Posts: 744 Joined: 10/11/2012 Location: Sleepy Hollow, IL User Profile |
I share your concern over the recent market and sideways behavior with the FTM system. I don’t like missing out on moves either. I’d hoped to put together a more extensive review, but some software problems will necessitate a delay on that project. Look for a more extensive review of “what’s normal” for the FTM system sometime in the near future. In the meantime, I’ve researched a few time periods that may be of interest. It’s easy to see that the FTM methodology has performed well in the past with a large number of diversified trades. However, over the short term it’s also easy to find periods where the market (SPY) performed better than the system for various reasons: earnings, news, world events, etc. I’m quite comfortable with what’s been happening recently. With its dynamic capabilities, I hope the system holds up in the future - but it’s trading individual stocks and not the index. I’ve snagged the recent 3 months and 2 additional 3 month periods in the past to give a glimpse of how we might expect the RTM logic to perform vs trends. Current; 2014; 2003; Brian may be correct. It may be beneficial to add a trend based system - but then we run into the problem of having equity tied up for longer periods… As I said, I appreciate your question & concerns with performance since June. I’ve been trading it in a Roth IRA using a trade multiplier of 20 so that it enters trades using 2% of equity since June. I also trade it in a Margin account using a trade multiplier of 40 so that it enters trades using 2% of margin equity. Both accounts use IB with Nirvana’s trade processor. The IRA is up 1.5% and the Margin is up 2.6% as of today. I’d hoped for better, but I’m with Lee when he says that it’s hard to believe this recent market… We’ll undoubtedly have drawdowns, but I’ll keep working to improve the system so I can share it with my kids and grandchildren with confidence. Mark [Edited by Mark Holstius on 10/3/2017 12:32 PM]  Attached file : 01 Present.png (188KB - 491 downloads) Attached file : 02 2014.png (216KB - 444 downloads) Attached file : 03 2003.png (183KB - 478 downloads) |
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