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Mark Holstius
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Most interesting (HClemmons) - do you use the recent trades to find a "target / average exit" or something similar for the expected return?
Mark
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HClemmons
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Operating off maximizing slope of the line between beginning and ending MV. Maximizing m, is the same as maximizing:
number of trades * average allocation percent * average trade return,
where trade return is calculated using (trade income) / (beginning MV * average allocation percent).
I am looking at the expected returns of the strategies recent trades, and picking the "best" expected return(not always the highest because of variance and number of recent trades to pick from).
Use the trades from the selected strategy and let OV tell me when to exit.
Setting a minimum expected value keeps you out of the strategy when you get a series of negative trades. For most strategies, I can get a similar return over a period of time with fewer trades (which is a result of higher return per trade). Works similar to the equity curve analysis, since you are avoiding the strategy (portfolio) when the recent results are not favorable.
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Steve Mayo
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That's interesting, Harold. Can you clarify a bit. It sounds like you are evaluating STRATEGIES and then selecting a PORTFOLIO containing that selected strategy? Are you trading only one single-strategy portfolio at any one time?
[Edited by Steve Mayo on 4/24/2014 7:52 PM]
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Steve2
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Steve,
While "rolling return" would also be an interesting measure, I prefer to look at fixed, non-overlapping periods. It's a simple way to understand how quickly draw downs are recovered and how consistent positive profits are achieved. I typically use quarterly periods as that aligns well with my risk tolerance.
Steve
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HClemmons
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You are correct that I am evaluating strategies. Based on available amounts to invest, I will start with the strategy with the highest expected return, and select trades from that strategy. My allocation % is high enough, that the process normally only needs one strategy per trading day.
However, if the top strategy only has one eligible trade, and I have funds for three trades, it will go to the next highest strategy (if expected return is high enough), and get trades from the next strategy. If not, I stop at the one trade selected and wait for the next trading day.
Ever changing PORTFOLIO based on expected return of the STRATEGIES.
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Mark Holstius
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Thanks Harold - do you have any statistics on your returns doing this?
Mark
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Eric Severance
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Location: Incline Viallge, NV
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I too have been asking (since V1) for a non compounding method to measure returns.... An Annual Rate of Return (non compounding). So one can better compare strats, ports, etc. Hedge funds are often measured this way. The compounding "hockey stick" effect is throwing things off and I fear will really trip up novices...IMHO
Thx,
Eric
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