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Keith Shepard

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Joined: 11/22/2005
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Subject : RE: Standard v Pro v NSP-31 v Homegrown strategies
Posted : 9/6/2007 9:57 AM
Post #12832 - In reply to #12829

Originally written by kmcintyre on 9/6/2007 3:19 AM

My interest is in finding a mechanical trading system that I can trust. I would like to have 5 - 10 positions on at any one time, and prefer holding positions for several weeks to months. I'd like to review my positions once per day, adjusting stops and profit targets as my mechanical trading system dictates. I am comfortable with trading stocks, options, or single stock futures. I want make 30+% ARR.


It sounds like you want to trend follow or position trade (trades last weeks/months) more than swing trade (trades last a few days or a week). Am I correct? If so, you might want to take a look at the Turtle system of trading.

If you do want to hold you positions for weeks and months, the cheapest way to find out if the Turtle system is something you want to use is to buy the recent book by Curtis Faith: Way of the Turtle. It's an excellent trading book even if you decided you don't want to be a Turtle trader. It's a quick read and it'll help you in all aspects of trading.

If Turtle trading does interest you, then consider buying Nirvana's Turtle plug-in: Nirvana Turtle Trader Plug-in. Nirvana's plug-in offers eleven strategies based on Turtle trading. I'm not sure if you need OmniTrader Pro for that plug-in. Some of the strategies are mechanical and to be traded without discretion. Turtle trades generally last 30-50 days (from my testing).

First, am I crazy?


Not at all. :-)

It looks like the PRO version has beefier strategies. Might they get me there?


The PRO strategies are better. I haven't traded them in a while, so I couldn't really give you much as a "review". Even if you can't program well, OmniTrader gives you basic tools to create your own strategies based on your goals and objectives. Relying on Nirvana's strategies isn't necessary. I found the Nirvana strategies to be a good base to learn from.

NSP-31 sounds promising, but the posted results appear to be based on putting all your eggs in one or two positions. I'm not sure how it would do with a more conservative portfolio management scenario.


NSP-31 is also more of a swing trading strategy (trades lasting on average 6-7 days). And yes ... from my trading experience with NSP-31 (since January 2007), it's a strategy that works best if you put the most fire power behind the fewest signals. I usually have no more than four open NSP-31 positions with my trading account fully in play (no margin though).

I don't put 50%-60% equity on a trade as Nirvana did (who really does), but they also ran tests with 40% and 20% of equity that showed profitability. In my experience with NSP-31, it doesn't pay to have a large, diverse portfolio.

NSP-31 is also a Long only strategy. No shorting with it. But really, if your goals are "5 - 10 positions on at any one time, and prefer holding positions for several weeks to months" as you stated above, then NSP-31 probably isn't the right strategy. The Turtle system sounds more in line with your trading goals/style.

Hope some of that helps.

:-)

Regards;
Keith
Deleting message 12832 : RE: Standard v Pro v NSP-31 v Homegrown strategies


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