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EYEGUY

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Posts: 1543

Joined: 12/12/2003
Location: BALDWINSVILLE, NEW YORK

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Subject : RE: Expectancy Testing
Posted : 1/14/2017 12:20 PM
Post #38688 - In reply to #38678

Mark:

OK, I have had some time to absorb your excellent presentation.

Although you did not discuss the concept of the Expectancy Filter block Ed Downs did in a mailer:




Thus it would seem that the Expectancy Filter Block is looking for the "hot hand" - a run of consistently profitable trades before a new trade would even be considered.

The problem I have with that is like the first precept that is usually taught in statistics/probability courses.

I am sure you will recognize it.

Johnny has a fair penny that he has tossed ten times and ten times it has come up heads. What is the probability that on the next toss a tails will appear?

Well, of course, not knowing anything and considering the string of ten heads to be a bit unlikely one is tempted to say 100%. But the real answer as we all know is 50%. No previous toss of the coin can influence any future toss as long as the coin is indeed a fair coin.

So, the premise put forth by Ed is a bit under suspicion in my opinion. Just because there were several winners preceding our contemplated trade does not mean that our next trade might not go south rather quickly.

Now another problem I have is with duplicating results.

Ed describes the creation of a new MVX-15 EXP strategy in the same brochure that is used in conjunction with the Connors RSI and produces incredible results:






Unfortunately I am not in possession of the MVX-15 Strategy Ed refers to with my 2C OT update and cannot duplicate his claim. Nor can I even replicate the strategy since his parameters for the strategy were not imparted in the brochure.

So, for the moment I am a bit skeptical of the Expectancy Block Filter.

Can you perhaps address any of my concerns?

Thanks,

Tom Helget



[Edited by EYEGUY on 1/14/2017 12:25 PM]

Attached file : The Expectancy Block Concept.PNG (74KB - 1854 downloads)
Attached file : MVX-15 EXP Concept.PNG (63KB - 2452 downloads)
Attached file : MVX-15 EXP and Connors RSI.PNG (178KB - 1915 downloads)

Deleting message 38688 : RE: Expectancy Testing


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