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Jim Dean

Posts: 3022

Joined: 9/21/2006
Location: L'ville, GA

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Subject : RE: Most Useful PortSim-Research Alloc Method
Posted : 9/1/2018 9:14 AM
Post #45314 - In reply to #45313

Thanks Mark

With fresh eyes this morning and your response to confirm it, it appears that my initial evaluation last night was correct.

You and I are talking about entirely different things. I have no argument or “dog in the fight” whatsoever about which allocation method is better to use for trades at the HRE (in context of this thread, that is ... I *do* have opinions about it ;~). Full allocation of funds is crucial and I’ve always felt that way. And I understand the simple math re how the compounding operates and how allocation percentages are calculated and why the bottom graph is different. But all of that is off the subject of what I was trying to talk about in this thread (which btw you asked me to separate from the other thread not to muddy the waters there). So, with due respect, back atcha my friend :-) It might be less confusing, in *this* thread, to move those correct but off-topic posts elsewhere and stay focused on the important point I am trying to present here. If you can debunk it, fine. But not by changing the question itself, please.

I’ve stated the “purpose” several times and we need to stick to that playing field for any of this to make sense. I’ve laid out a specific test regimen. So it should be clear, if you read it carefully and follow the steps.

Again - my point is relative to DOING RESEARCH - not about active live trading. The research I am speaking of is when a user is trying to answer a question like:
A. Of these five strategies, which is the best and which is the worst?
B. Within a range of possible parameters for a Block in a Strategy, what values are best?
C. (More complex) For some ATM feature such as Ranking formula, what’s the best to use?

To answer those kind of focused questions, I believe that my prior points have satisfactorily proven that Fixed$ is the allocation method that wil most properly utilize the wide variety of market fluctuations across a ten year backtest, such that the resulting choices have the highest likelihood of providing robust future performance - regardless of the allocation method used in actual trading.

I am absolutely confident of this, fwiw. It’s just math. (But of course I have been known to be wrong before … ;-)

PS: I have retroactively modified the thread title to clarify the focus.

[Edited by Jim Dean on 9/1/2018 10:02 AM]

Deleting message 45314 : RE: Most Useful PortSim-Research Alloc Method

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