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Last Activity 1/25/2010 7:33 PM 70 replies, 9242 viewings |
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Flowta![]() Regular ![]() ![]() ![]() Posts: 92 Joined: 1/12/2004 Location: Canberra Australia ![]() |
Guys You might want to recheck the results of this strategy after removing the Next Pivot Point Stop. Im not sure this is a tradeable stop. It is useful for strategy entry comparisons, but, it takes time to detect the 'next pivot point', so results based on trades that detect this stop when it occurs are questionable. :( Gary | ||
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Gary, Thank you for your input! We need all we can get the plan is to receive as much as possible to create a Strategey all can benefit from. What stop do you use to exit or how do you decide to exit? Any input on adding or changing setpoints is welcome or just update and post is good toThe strategy is based on Ral Template. | ||
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Flowta![]() Regular ![]() ![]() ![]() Posts: 92 Joined: 1/12/2004 Location: Canberra Australia ![]() |
Hi Scrappy Sorry to take so long to respond, Ive been travelling this week. A difficult question to answer, for two reasons. First, the more I look at trading the more I suspect that exits are the really hard part. To date I have been looking at medium to longer term trend trading. The philosophy I am developing for my own trading is a reasonably tight (position sizing determined) stop on entry, following that up quickly as the position moves up (and of course they always do :) to a break even level, and from then on I follow up more gradually to a wider stop level to allow the position to breathe. I never move a stop down. So far, this has seen me take approx 45% losing trades, about 45% small winners, and the remainder as reasonable returns. That was in a rising market (recently changed). With a longer time frame, getting in to and staying with that 10% is the objective. So a combination of strict and trailing stops is indicated. As well as the canned OT stops, using reversing signals, and plugging in a separate system (or two) to the orders bar are extremely useful ways to create 'additional' stops in OT (if you have the full strategies editor). I also fiddle with developing some of my own systems using the SDK, and some of these have potential as stops. But I wont make these generally available because I consider them as my contribution to other Nirvana Club members, many of whom have also contributed Club material for members. So the experiments I usually run for stops are along the lines above. One final point Scrappy that may or may not be useful, I usually try to have all my development (stops and entires) based on fully non optimised systems. This gives me a clear basis for comparing approaches. Thats not to say that I wouldnt turn some limited optimisation on later once I was happy with the basic system if I thought it useful. Hope this helps Scrappy Gary | ||
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Gary, Thanks for your reply.I use Trailing stops on allmost all trades once a trade turns to a gain I set and forget. I have built a program based on Boolean Logic - True / False statements so I understand that there are some things which are not for all. What we try to do is just help out. I love to sit here and build and test strategys its something I enjoy doing I have built and Traded several which do very well with indicators and comfirmation! The strategy Richard and I worked on works well if filtered as in Richards post I like how he runs his test then removes less than 90% forward testing improved results. Well if theres any things you would like to share theres a lot of users reading this section. Thank you so much for your input :) [Edited by on 5/7/2005 9:23 PM] | ||
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CSekhar![]() Regular ![]() ![]() Posts: 69 Joined: 5/19/2005 Location: Oakville, Ontario, Canada ![]() |
Originally written by 254854 on 4/6/2005 11:45 AM Hi to all, Firstly you all must understand that i can only go so far with this as some of the information is under the Nirvana Club Banner,so i will give the best information to be used with OT2005. 1/ this whole set-up was made for the Forex Market in Real-Time,the symbols to trade are USD/CHF and USD/EURO because when one symbol goes long the other symbol will go short so in theroy you get one signal but enter 2 trades(which is pretty cool) 2/with the FX market it has nice moves every day to make a nice profit,so by trading with GUPPYS and KELTNERS you will be entering a trade to catch the meat in the middle(which in FX terms depending on the ADR) 3/You must have an understanding of compression and expansion of the GUPPY indicators to tell you how strong the trend is going tobe 4/if you use garrys set-up add the CCI indicator set to 50 periods and see how well they all corrosponed with the trend. 5/When the 3 EMA of the guppy set-up moves outside of the Keltner then look if the CCI has broke through the 0% line(the zero line acts as support and resistance) I have looked at this abit for use with End of Day but not alot(so have aplay and see if it might work for you) I will try and get snap shot to show you all, but my data feed is down! happy Trading Regards Frank Any questions,leave me a message and i will answer with my screen shot. Hello Frank: I read with interest your posting (above). It is a surprise coincidence that I was looking for something on Forex and happen to come across your posting. I trade Forex with FXCM and I see great potential in it, not only to make money for self but also to run a business of making money for others. I am aiming for that possibility. Forex is sure a huge mkt and there are many who would participate with money if there is a suitable trading approach. I would like to discuss this with you and see whether your trading template is suitable for the task. Even though I am in trading (Mostly futures and commodities) and curriencies, I am new to OmniTrader. I have been using TradeStation for the past 14 years. I used OmniTrader in 1990s and made some good money. It was lot simpler system at that time. Let us talk. -Chandra Sekhar | ||
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Adrian![]() Member ![]() Posts: 44 Joined: 6/30/2005 Location: Cambridge UK ![]() |
I have tried Richard.ots from this thread and found it to be an excellent strategy, however new problems have arised. (1) The appearance of an 'out of bounds' error with OT2005 v3 (2) Can't use the richard.ots strategy at all with OT2005 v4 (3) Omnitrader support claims they cannot edit the strategy to even try to correct it- hence it has been sent to the developers! Richard, any ideas on how to move past this hurdle? Adrian | ||
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RichardL![]() Veteran ![]() ![]() Posts: 134 Joined: 9/18/2004 ![]() |
Hi Adrian I've been using the strategy regularly over the last few months but it bombed out on the latest OT release. From various posts I understand the developers are about to release an update to 4 which is a fix all the best Richard | ||
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Adrian![]() Member ![]() Posts: 44 Joined: 6/30/2005 Location: Cambridge UK ![]() |
Hi Richard, I wish to say many thanks for the posts yourself and scrappy have placed on the forum. I think I have learned more from your posts, and testing richard.ots than from any other OT source! Thankfully richard.ots now works with the latest version of OT2005! I say thankfully because Omnitrader indicates it outperforms (FTSE under general conditions) all other trading strategies I have tried including iTLB ! I have a couple of questions: (1) I remember that yourself and scrappy were happy with iTLB: What conditions did you choose to make it work effectively? ie was it with or without confirmation or did it require considerable culling of stocks before it would perform? Without culling I get poor performance of the iTLB strategies in general - I'm just investigating the consequence of culling. (2) I am confused regarding the usage of confirmation. Surely confirmation can be incoporated into the strategy ??? So far my findings suggests the need for confirmation depends on the quality of the strategy. For example Richard.ots has a very desirable property: Without stock culling, positive values for the 250 day BT and FT far outweigh the number of negative values. To me it seems a 'risk' to start confirming these trades manually as there is no validation from the BT or FT? (in fact I tried confirmation via RAL2 and it degraded my profit!) Whereas OT default strategy does not have this desirable property: It would need confirmation in my view (I haven't tried this yet). Best regards, Adrian | ||
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Adrian![]() Member ![]() Posts: 44 Joined: 6/30/2005 Location: Cambridge UK ![]() |
Richard, I'd like to share the idea of this strategy: it is still in its early stages and may be very close in concept to posts by yourself and others. It is not thoroughly tested, but more a notion I will report back on. The main difference is that while trading *both* the 250day Fowardtest and 250day Backtest are running to indicate hit rate deviations 'online'. The approach would function as a day by day stock 'schizophrenia detector' by comparing the hit rates of a 250day(or other) FT and BT, assuming enough hits (say>5 over 250days) for believable stats. I currently have to do this comparison manually (If OT produced a flag to indicate a schizoid stock based on large deviations between the FT and BT hitrate, that would be really nice). In practise the idea (untested due to a labmode bug- but I can see the potential in the numbers) would be to calculate the dynamic ratio of the FTHR/BTHR as a confirming signal. The closer to 1 the better the trade for that day. The initial disatisfaction with this idea is that one is using data that was optimised 250days ago. However my argument would be that IF the 250day FT is consistent with 250day BT, we've demonstrated optimisation IS still current, AND also obtained prewarning of schizoid stock before financial damage. It's partly a response to my concern that after culling stock groups that fit specific strategies - a very clever approach suggested by yourself - there *may* still be a need for the fit to be retested and revised? Is this every year, 6 months etc..I have no idea? If it is a long period of time the confirming indicator I am suggesting, may be unecessary. Finally I have been testing Omnitrader for the last month so I am unaware of many subtleties, and am 'all ears' as to whether I should radically alter the above approach. Best regards, Adrian | ||
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CSekhar![]() Regular ![]() ![]() Posts: 69 Joined: 5/19/2005 Location: Oakville, Ontario, Canada ![]() |
Hi Richard, I happen to see a strategy developed by you (NOT chart Template) and posted somewhere in this forum. Could you tell me where I can find it? Also, customer support at OT says the strategy gives error message in their latest version of OT. (release 4B). Thanks. -Chandra | ||
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RichardL![]() Veteran ![]() ![]() Posts: 134 Joined: 9/18/2004 ![]() |
Sure - its post #6494 on page 1 of this thread (written by Scrappy from my template post) richard.ots Cheers Richard | ||
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RichardL![]() Veteran ![]() ![]() Posts: 134 Joined: 9/18/2004 ![]() |
Hi Adrian thanks for the very kind comments although to be honest I soaked up Jeff's books on Chart patterns and also some postings in the club forum. To tell you the truth, I am a bit jaundiced on the effectiveness of FT testing because: 1. on purely mechanical wholly non-optimised systems - you'd expect FT% to be roughly equal to BT% but it never is (looking at each strategy separately, ie outside All Systems Voting) 2. for good prospecting results, you need optimising systems which always skews to good BT and not very good FT typically - curve fitting at its best. But in any case, the FT test is not "for real" testing **unless you fix the backtest period absolute date range and don't use All Systems Voting **- you need true walk forward testing (THE most desirable OT future plug in EVER!) to give valid results that you'd hopefully experience in trading for real. Thats the only way I believe you can truly calibrate good strategies. Horribly time consuming to do manually, and just the thing OT could do automatically if one day configured to be able to On the questions (1) I like iTLB - any pattern in price or indicator/system is a good thing (for me) although have to be careful not to rely on connected underlying phenomena that therefore reinforce each other. I cull stocks purely because I don't think one strategy (as opposed to a superstrategy) can do all possible symbols - just not realistic. The usual number of internal parameters wouldn't be enough to fit the curves I think. (2) Confirmation, as I understand it is either you look for similar patterns in another symbol eg FTSE100 curve to confirm eg general rise for a suspected LONG opp on one of the FTSE100 symbols or Confirmation from other systems or indicators deriving from price/vol etc data on the SAME symbol. What we tried to do with the strategy, was to embody the eyeball confirmation tests we were applying to the Chart reported at the start of this thread but automatically, to present candidates which therefore already fitted the bill. cheers Richard [Edited by RichardL on 7/12/2005 6:28 PM] | ||
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CSekhar![]() Regular ![]() ![]() Posts: 69 Joined: 5/19/2005 Location: Oakville, Ontario, Canada ![]() |
Richard: This is regarding your famous strategy, 'Richard.ots'. Congrtulations for a great job! I see you have used four filters and allowed "any" for "Entry Filter Consensus". Can you explain what is the significance in using "any"? Is there any additional benefit in this "any" option compared to "60%" for the same filters? Thank you. -Chandra | ||
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RichardL![]() Veteran ![]() ![]() Posts: 134 Joined: 9/18/2004 ![]() |
Hi - to be honest, Scrappy did a lot of the work on this - due credit - I guess originally the intention was to get any of the four criteria to allow a signal through. In practice, I was looking for key indicators, like ADX as a primary, and others as shown in the template as a secondary confirmation- so this approach suited me. Also not all confirmations were expected to be 1 or 2 bar concurrent and I didn't want to slacken contemporary signals too much by having to have too wide eg a 10 bar window lookback. For that reason also I didn't go for the 60% setting because again it would rely on everything happening relatively concurrently. cheers Richard | ||
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After reading the post about Richard.ots Who has a template and instructions on how it's used let US not stop at Scrappy.ots, Richard.ots .Strategies created help all the OT family so if there's someone out there with some ideas feel free to share. Richard thanks for the acknowledgment. | ||
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CSekhar![]() Regular ![]() ![]() Posts: 69 Joined: 5/19/2005 Location: Oakville, Ontario, Canada ![]() |
Hello Richard and Hello Scrappy: I address this email to both of you because, both of you have contributed for a good strategy. Thanks for the great work, here are a couple of concerns. 1. You have shown us all a great strategy!, now, why do you Scrappy asking others to post any available strategies developed by them? Why? Yours is a good one! Why don't you (us) just trade it? Why look for another one? Are we traders (you too) are obsessed with finding a holy grail and will never stop until we find one? Now, how is your strategy (Richard.ots / Scrappy.ots) is fairing in real tradig? Is it making money? It looks pretty good for both back testing and forward testing! Richard, how did you produce 100% in both BT and FT? Amazing! Please, both of you, give us how the system has faired in real-life trading. | ||
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RichardL![]() Veteran ![]() ![]() Posts: 134 Joined: 9/18/2004 ![]() |
Hi The original thread was started to share Chart Templates that suit the poster's trading. Then we got requests to describe our trading methods to go along with the templates posted. Then it kindof moved to developing strategies to automatically pull out opportunities that were already pre-qualified to suit the posted Template/Trading method. Couple of things therefore - I don't think we as a group of users have even scratched the surface on whats really possible & would therefore *really* appreciate others' views & thoughts on what works for them, in the same way. Also I don't use the strategy exclusively, its part of a clutch of ones I use in different profiles, each with hopefully optimised restricted sets of symbols that historically worked well with them (hence the BT FT cull). Please don't believe 100% BT and 100% FT other than in the context that the symbols that gave that result *that day* were a culled list that had specifically resulted from a reduction to the set of symbols that gave those stats (on the basis of moving forward, you'd have more chance that those symbols, at least in the short term < 1 month, would continue to work well). I bet that testing again a few days forward would have different stats. Thats why I honestly believe that a true *walk-forward* tester module is the *only* way to really find out how the systems perform "for real". My current approach, as reported in this thread and other postings, is for me only a poor second to walk-forwarding. I get variable results with richard.ots not least because I have the poor habit to try and second guess it & therefore not likely to get rich till I learn to trade better :-) All the best Richard | ||
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CSekhar![]() Regular ![]() ![]() Posts: 69 Joined: 5/19/2005 Location: Oakville, Ontario, Canada ![]() |
Richard: This time, I am writing about your template (not about your Strategy). In your template, you have used ADX indicator and DMI system. I am just curious why you did not use ADX system? it would have given you both ADX plot and DMI trading signals! It is not of a great difference, but, academically curious to know whether you have any preference. Thanks. -Chandra | ||
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RichardL![]() Veteran ![]() ![]() Posts: 134 Joined: 9/18/2004 ![]() |
Hi - no reason, just grabbed what came to hand first to get it up and running :-) best Richard | ||
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Hello, As said not asking for a Strategy to be posted but the Template on which one uses to trade from. Everyone I know trades a little different some use various Indicators and some guess buy the chart itself. I used Scrappy.ots for a while before posting and have done well I still use it as of now I just dont use the Stop portion I use a Trailing Profit Exit within my Trading Platform. I'm useing Richard.ots in a Trading contest for about a month or so I started late but catching up Fast in 80th place but started at 487. I have used it In my account and done good but I Study the chart more than anything. I have built a Candle.ots but still needs some bugs worked out. | ||
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CSekhar![]() Regular ![]() ![]() Posts: 69 Joined: 5/19/2005 Location: Oakville, Ontario, Canada ![]() |
Hi I noticed that none of the systems in Richard.ots is checked for optimization. You and Richard must have a valid reason for that. -Chandra | ||
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RichardL![]() Veteran ![]() ![]() Posts: 134 Joined: 9/18/2004 ![]() |
I think we wanted to see how it worked without the benefit of optimisation - that way, you know you can increase performance afterwards by switching it on, but at least you don't get changing signals (from that aspect of the design) while checking it out. Richard | ||
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Adrian![]() Member ![]() Posts: 44 Joined: 6/30/2005 Location: Cambridge UK ![]() |
Richard - you mentioned "I don't think we as a group of users have even scratched the surface on whats really possible "... Does this mean multiple strategies on culled symbols may yield to a superior Richard2.ots strategy? Which specific aspects of richard.ots would Scrappy and yourself you like to improve? I'm still puzzled as to why richard.ots works so well!! What do you think is key to its superior performance? After testing all of Nirvana's strategies supplied with OT2005 plus iTLB, I think Nirvana should take a keen look at the concepts in richard.ots with a view to later OT releases !!! Adrian ps I have a lot of work to do to catch up with you guys! | ||
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RichardL![]() Veteran ![]() ![]() Posts: 134 Joined: 9/18/2004 ![]() |
Actually lots of possibilities - for instance I'm at the moment running a "top five" contest between my strategies. Starting from no 1, I'm running a 250;250 BT FT to eliminate the bottom 5 FT hit rate strategies from a clutch of 10. Then adding another 5 in and repeating. Doing over successive days & not worried about the floating backtest period. When I run out of strategies, repeat from beginning always with the aim to have top 5 FT performers in play. Use these top 5 on a BT 250, FT 0 run. Ideally the performance overall FT% report should be able (it can't yet) indicate degree of overlap between FT on individual strategies as I really want 100% overall hit rate over all my symbols with the best mix/spread of strategies. No way to tell at the moment easily if I'm getting a lot of coverage overlap from similar strategies without delving into individual symbol reports. Richard | ||
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dzolnik![]() New User Posts: 1 Joined: 2/9/2005 ![]() |
Hey Richard, I have been playing around with your Richard strategy and cannot seem to get it to work. It worked fine the other day, however I now get a error message stating something like " the object is not referenced.....". I called support and they told me to update to 4C update and re-download the strategy. Have you been having the same problem? Just curiuos because it seemed like a great strategy. Thanks Doug |
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